Opinionated Intelligence
for CPG teams
Separate real growth from noise
How did our July 4th promo at Kroger perform?
Strong event on the shelf. Units were up 32% during the three-week promo, about 480K units above the prior three weeks.
Powered by Sundial’s Root Cause Analysis™
Know when your pricing power slips
Which of our products are getting more price-sensitive?
Four SKUs are showing early signs that shoppers are responding differently to price than they used to, but it hasn't hit your volume yet, so it won't show up in a standard sales review for another few weeks.
The clearest is your 32oz family-size SKU: its price elasticity has drifted from −1.2 to −1.8 over the last eight weeks, meaning the same price increase now costs you noticeably more volume than it did a quarter ago.
On plan today, but the price response is quietly breaking
| Week | Sales vs. plan (current view) | Price paid | Units per buyer | Response to last price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 weeks ago | On plan | $5.99 | 1.4 | Normal |
| 4 weeks ago | On plan | $6.29 | 1.3 | Softening |
| This week | On plan | $6.49 | 1.1 | Sharp pullback |
Spot patterns across retailers
Is the margin slip at Kroger happening at our other retailers too?
Yes, three of your seven major accounts show the same margin erosion, and it's not three separate account problems.
Kroger, Albertsons, and Meijer are all losing pocket margin on the same two SKUs, and they share one thing the other four don't: a distributor-level rebate that quietly escalated this year. The four accounts you supply directly are unaffected.
Put your next trade
dollar where it still pays
If I have one more dollar of trade spend, where should it go?
The Target 12oz multipack.
It's still on the steep part of its response curve at about $2.40 return per trade dollar, while your Kroger family-size event is past saturation at under $0.60.
Walk into the JBP with
every scenario modeled
What scenarios should I pressure-test before the Walmart JBP?
Pressure-test three.
Hold price + add a feature (grows category volume and their priority), a deeper promo (lifts your units, shrinks category margin, they'll push back), and a list increase.
& so much more....
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